Five Things I Think...

Today, here are 5 things I think I know about MTG:

1. Modern Masters: This special set will be a smashing success.   Wizards will make money, LGSs will make money, traders and the secondary markets will make money.   No cards will go down overly much in value, in fact most should remain at their value or spike slightly in price.   I do not think it will have the intended affect Wizards of the Coast hopes for - at least not to the scale that they desire to see Modern become an increasingly popular format.   They'll learn lessons from this release, and likely have a MM2 within two to three years.   (I strongly disagree with anyone that thinks it will happen next year - to the point that I'd put money on it).

I've already written why I think this set will have problems fulfilling the expectations of WotC, but here it is again in a nutshell.   The overall cost of the product, often highly inflated above the suggested price, is a big red stop sign to many players.   If you're not going to GP Vegas (can you say 3,000+ guests?), than you're likely going to be paying at least $200, and more likely $250 or more for a box.   For those that get it below $200, congrats.   However, all that aside this will be phenomenally successful.

2. Modern Masters (Part Two): I am excited to get my box at the MSRP - thank you Top Deck Games.   I can't wait to open it.   What I am having a hard time deciding is in advance is what to do if I hit a few money cards.   Trade them back and buy another box?   I think that's the move, but I honestly don't know.   I do turn a little bit into Gollum when I think of foil 'goyfs and swords.   My precious...

My ultimate goal is I want to be able to build a couple of fun Modern format decks.   I don't expect my Modern constructed deck to be competitive.   Yes, even though that last statement sounded counter-intuitive I do mean it exactly as I said it.   Is there a player of Modern out there that isn't a Spike and doesn't just want to smash face?

I don't, at least not in constructed.   In constructed, I'd rather learn how to play.   I want to have a good time.   I'd even like to have a conversation with my opponent before and after the game.   In Limited format, I'd absolutely like a little bit of face smashing.   But I'll be lucky to draft this in a group more than 2-3 times.   It's a big set with a high learning curve for people that have been playing as long as I have and it's expensive.   Even if you can find a draft where they aren't charging much more than MSRP, unless you're independently wealthy you likely aren't drafting it much.

I'm anxious to hear about people's experiences with this new format, and I will try to write about mine if they're exciting enough.

3. EDH: I think that by the end of the year, we'll have 4-6 new EDH products from WotC.   This is a best guess, but I really do feel that with the increasing popularity of EDH as a format and given the initial overtures by Wizards were very successful, they can't help but follow-up with another run of custom decks.   Two things would make this even better - one, each deck has a chance for a bonus commander and two, there will be at least one new card for each deck that will only be available to EDH players.

I'm also finally playing my EDH deck I built a couple of months ago.   This may sound blasphemous to some of you, but I can't tell you how much more fun it is to play than my Standard deck.   I can't get enough of it.   My general is Aurelia, and while I rarely get her to the battlefield against my son's Ruric Thar deck, when I do it's glorious.   I practically thump my chest when it happens.   As an aside here, for a little dude that's probably spent less time building his EDH deck than he has reading the rules, his deck is always a handful.   My deck is a study in what I have versus/what I can afford/versus what advice I've received - in theory it should be leaps and bounds ahead.   Yet he constantly finds ways to beat me.   I don't know if I want to start tinkering with my deck yet.   Perhaps it's time to start building another one?

4. Drafting Nightmares: I know I practically wake up with cold sweats now the night before a block draft.   It's just that scary.   I've played it 4-5 times.   I've read just about every article out there.   And I've really thought I've been smart, or clever, or strategic or ... [insert your favorite synonym for intelligence here].   I haven't broken 3-2 yet.   Last week I went 1-2 with what I thought was a pretty vicious Gruul splash black deck.   That's not so bad, at least I'm above 50% overall, right?   For someone who's still a drafting infant compared to some of the weekly competition, isn't that respectable?

Unfortunately, it's not for me.   Here's why.   I'm not comfortable.   Let me break it down for you, so we can all look at it.   It starts with Pack 1.   Dragon's Maze.   10 Guilds, one Pack, few common playable cards, maybe.    Questions about whether or not you have to telegraph what guild you want/need to be in and which pack that is.   Tough choices among the uncommons and rares abound.   Do you choose that Orzhov card, or do you go with the Gruul?   Gold card or standard?   Draft gates early or late?   There are as many strategies as their are guilds - actually, there are more.   The funny thing is, this set is so well balanced that it depends more on your bombs, removal and play style than it does on what guild you draft - at least, as far as I can tell.   (Noted exception, Dimir is still difficult to play well).

And there are at least six players at your table (hopefully eight or more).   This isn't your mother's M13 draft.   Oh no sir, this is a whole different animal.

So you pick likely 3 colors out of Dragon's Maze.   Maybe you splash a few gates to help you on your way.   Then you start up with Gatecrash followed by RTR.   The second two packs of this block are where things get dicey.   Why?   You guessed wrong.   Either someone to your right or left starts cutting you at a critical time.   Or what's worse, because there is only one set of packs instead of three that server your guild, you don't find any fixing.

I spoke with a friend at last week's draft.   I asked him what his impression was after having been able to draft it a few times more than I had - and I don't think he had any better feel for it than I did.   Of course, he beat me pretty soundly later on in the evening, but I don't think he knew why his deck worked anymore than why mine failed.

I'm a self diagnosed Timmy - but I like to at least understand and plan a bit of what I'm doing.   This limited format is crazy.   Not necessarily in a bad way, but it is crazy.   So here's what I think.

I think that TO's and LGS's should find a way to order and store a fair bit of RTR, GTC and DGM stock.   Anything less than 5-10 full cycles is ridiculously near-sighted for any store with a dedicated base of players.   When this format goes out of rotation, it will be a drafting gold standard for years to come.

5. Vintage: Lastly, I think I wished I played Vintage.   I wish so much for that depth of knowledge of the game and for the cards to play at that level.   I want to be able to do this.   To be able to play at my friend's coolest Magic event of the year and feel like I belong.

But here's the thing that I've learned about Magic.   I don't have to play Vintage to attend the tournament.   I don't have to even know what it is.   I just have to love the game.

And because my friend is the TO, I know something else.   I'm saving the date.   Not because he's my friend, although for me that would be enough.   No, it's because he knows Magic.  It will be worth the drive just to see the side events, the people, the artists and the product.   I fully expect we'll get to play some fun drafts.   I hope to get to spend time meeting some great people and talking with them.   Perhaps above all else, I can't wait to be introduced to what it means to play Vintage, and to share that with my son.

Jacob and I will be there in November, and we'll bring our decks, binders and a great attitude.   Perhaps we'll even bring some SJ attitude with us.

November 1-3, Philadelphia.   Be there folks, for the return of the Eternal Weekend.   Maybe together, we can figure out what an 'eternal weekend' is and how we can make more of them.   Hosted by Card Titan, it will be an event to remember.   I can guarantee you that.



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