The Increasing Attendance Shuffle (or, An Open Letter to WotC & Event Organizers)

I need a hotkey that will write, "My opinion is that of a Timmy, so bear that in mind as you read this."   Or maybe it should read, "Hi, my name is Charles and I'm a Timmy."   Scratch that, too confusing.

So here's the situation.   This weekend (April 20th, 2013), Star City Games held an event in Seattle.   Someone forgot to send me my plane ticket, so I didn't make the trek from my home state of NJ.   But as with all lovers of all things MTG, I was paying attention to my Twitter feed.   What follows from this point forward is more a culmination of thoughts about MTG Tournaments that have been simmering for some time - Seattle is simply my personal tipping point.

Aside from hearing about Erin "Original Oestrus" Campbell's 0-2 start and other random factoids, one bit of information stood out to me.   They had an attendance of 558 people.   I thought that it sounded like a nice party, but even better was the fact that it was the biggest West Coast Open on record.

Then came the resounding 'thunk' telling us all the other shoe was dropping.   Start of play would be delayed while they set up additional tables.   Not being there, it wasn't until much later that I also learned the room they had was too small.

The Troubles
I wasn't surprised that another recent MTG event had set a new record for attendance.   It almost seems to be a commonplace occurrence these days since Return to Ravnica released.   What surprised me was that yet again they weren't ready for it.   We've all seen the feeds from events.   I experienced it personally at the GP in Atlantic City that my son and I attended.   In fact, GPATCITY wasn't something that to my knowledge had been done before (or at least recently).   Even though it was a newer GP event location, attendance there exceeded expectations.   It did create some delays before the event started.   Once we were allowed to finally start after waiting some thirty minutes or so, things proceeded smoothly.

(Hat's off to PES and everyone who made the day what it was - my son and I had a great time).

Following GPATCITY, more events reported high or record-breaking attendance figures.   And more delayed starts.   One such event had a delayed start of over two hours.   Other events have had to find additional Judges before starting.   And that's not even talking about the additional headaches entering people into the tracking systems or moving resources to address problems such as deck checks.

I'm old.   I came to Magic late.   I don't know all the whys, wherefores and history of how things work or should be.   I certainly haven't spent time figuring out why some events are SGC, others are PES, still more are TCG and others are just run by WotC.

But even as a layman I can see when there is a pattern affecting a system that should be addressed.

The Feed
So I said to myself, "Self, if you can see this, surely others can.   But what can we do?"  "Well, self, I think this is a good chance to use that newfangled Twitter thingy to say something profound - so long as we can do it in 140 characters."   And with that, I signed the deal to writing this particular blog entry.   I didn't know it yet, but I was about to lock horns with someone I think to be so well respected that my brain should explode simply from interacting with him.

It went just like this...

Me: #SCGSEA #mtg When will organizers learn that the model for projecting attendance doesn't work? It's faster and easier to scale down.
[House Lights go down, Curtains rise, Orchestra reaches crescendo and angels sing on high...]
Riki Hayashi: Respectfully, a 30%+ increase over our previous Seattle high isn't something that any "projection" should predict.
Me [Putting on my best armor and strapping on a sword]: Respectfully, in turn, why the heck not? Most all events R seeing higher numbers this year. Plan based on that.
[Thunder booms, people start running for the exits, Pandemonium. Babies cry in the distance.]
Riki Hayashi: If you're here. Stop by the stage to chat.
Me: OMG, I am in SO MUCH TROUBLE [...err no. From there I tried to work out another way we could talk, but more about that hopefully in a few minutes.]

First off, one day I'm going to write about how Twitter is one of the worst mediums to do anything but tell people where you got a fabulous manicure.   I'll start with this conversation as an example and end with MTG pros complaining about the system they play under.   When it comes to complaining and expecting results, Twitter SUCKS.   It simply does.   In fact, Economists at MIT and Cambridge are right now developing a formula to calculate exactly how much suckage a complaint on Twitter generates based on some value P or some such.

Back to the story...stay on target...

For those that don't know, Riki Hayashi is a well respected Level 3 Judge and a writer on all things Magical. It practically goes without saying that if he wants to talk with you, you should listen.   I nearly called my booking agent and packed an overnight bag right then.

Alas, I'm a father of two and would like to remain happily married.   So I cancelled my nonstop flight and thought about this some more.   I started to hear voices (perfectly normal for me - just move along and they won't bother you).   There was a little voice that sounded a bit like Grandpa from the Simpsons saying, "You know there's something fishy here, write about it."   So here we are.

Welcome to the Real World
I'm not a psychic or a statistics guy.   So I had no way of being in a position to say, "Gee, I bet they should set up for almost 600 people for that event in Seattle."   But I do feel I thrive a bit on common sense.

Magic the Gathering has in recent months undergone something of a resurgence    Since the release of the much anticipated Return to Ravnica block, attendance numbers from FNM's to Grand Prix have all risen.   I'm not going to fill this blog with citations, but it's been common enough that I shouldn't have to.   It's past time this should be recognized as a quantifiable phenomenon and start to address how to deal with it.   Sitting back and saying, "Well, the most we've ever had at this PTQ is 50 people, so if we set up for 55 we'll be fine," is unfortunately no longer cutting the mustard.

It's time to embrace the new.   Without doing so, as I so inelegantly pointed out, you risk alienating your fan base.   How many more times are players going to hear about record breaking attendance and last minute delays and changes as a result before they start to vote elsewhere with their money?   Dragon Maze is due out shortly and if I'm reading things right, people are VERY excited about the next set of blocks that will start out this fall.   Greco-Roman mythology themed sets?   That's bonkers in terms of fan boy love and pre-sales.

So what can be done?   What should be done?

There are some simple, and some NOT so simple fixes.   I'm going to offer a few ideas for your consideration:

1. Attendance: Base projected attendance on a calculation that doesn't rely on previous models.   Instead, find some model that more accurately reflects the state of the game.  Perhaps set sales figures?   Maybe attendance at all sanctioned events from FNM's on upwards?   This is an area for statistics wizards to suss out, but any solution has to incorporate figures that account for recent performance.   I think the numbers that are necessary to do a reasonably accurate projection are there to be had (regional sales figures, perhaps) and it won't require a lot of hocus pocus to figure out.   Setting an Intern down at the main office to do a months worth of analysis is something that will reap tremendous benefits.   Especially if a model can be found that creates a method of accurately projecting attendance (let's say within +/- 8% for any event with 200+ attendees should be the goal).

2. Modernization: This one has many areas that will require fine tuning and gnashing of teeth.   But if we are willing to agree that theoretically, the idea of deck lists submitted electronically can result in a far superior experience for players and Judges, then it is past time to argue about whether it should be and start figuring out how to make this happen.   Networked laptops on scene for deck registrations at large GPs?   Solve that by partnering in some way with local computer stores or some other corporate sponsorship (WotC is a big company on the west coast, surely someone can find a method to make a profitable deal here).   Even if you offer a rotating schedule whereby systems are shared between locations, this needs to happen or an alternative method needs to be employed.   Allow/encourage online submissions of deck lists - that's not as far fetched as some might think.   If this was done with a DCI code and pass code, players could make last second changes before the competition starts with fewer computers needed on-site.   Bring a USB with your day's decklist from an editable .pdf?   That would work too - and it would likely speed up processing.   Paper is king, but let's stop killing trees when there are viable alternatives.   Oh...and in case anyone missed the fine print here, Judges with handheld devices (think iPads/tablets) can access decklists of any player at a match.   AND you can collect some pretty gnarly data to use internally.   Ladies and gentlemen, we may play a game using paper cards but we don't have to be tied to a paper based antiquated system for tracking decklists.

3. Preregistration: Why the current system so favors people signing up the day of or just before an event is a mystery to me.   Force players to accept a new paradigm.   Early registration can be rewarded with a discount.   General preregistration can be closed a few days before the event.   This has untold benefits.   First, you KNOW how many people are coming.   Need to arrange for an additional room?  Done.   Need to get more tables set up?  Done.   Need more Judges?  Done, done and done.   No more last minute changes or creating situations where Judges registered to play have to give up their down time to help out at the last moment.   Secondly, if you have promotional materials or other printing to be done, you don't have to scramble at the last minute or short players.   Third, this gives any vendors attending a good peek at what they need to bring.   No more situations with artists running short of materials or shops running short on help.   Lastly, what event location wouldn't like to know what to expect from you as an organizer?   For larger events, they can make arrangements for additional food options and really cater to your experience being the best it can be.   For me, this is a common-sense solution and one that has to be implemented sooner rather than later for anything that should get more than 100 participants.   Even larger LGS events should consider implementing this.   Oh, and to cap it off...know your limits!   As an organizer, if you can handle 100 people, than stop accepting registrations when you reach that point.   It's OK to be a victim of success.   It's not OK to crowd 180 people into a space that only comfortably holds 140.

3.1 Preregistration (Part Deux): One final thought here.   WotC has sunk a fair bit of development time into online games, website development and the Gatherer database.   They should recognize that spending time creating an online registration system that is fluid, scalable and adaptable to all events with 100+ players is a benefit that will help everyone.   Creating a plug-n-play type system that allows for preregistration, collects fees, and handles much of the work load that works in tandem with the software that handles the actual game-day event is something that everyone would appreciate and support.   We may not see it's benefits as players, but transparency is often the best measurement of a successful system.   No one singular event organizer may see the benefit in making a tool such as this, but that doesn't justify not embarking on a journey to design and create it.  WotC, it's time to get this done.   (If it's fully scalable - just think of how great the average player would feel when they can preregister for a FNM event at their local LGS and show up two minutes to showtime - without having to sweat holding things up...LGS owners across the globe would sing praises for this alone).

4. Share Information: WotC (Hasbro) is very private about how much information they share regarding sales figures.   This current rash of over attended events though makes me think that it may be time to review this approach.   Only WotC knows how many units they sell.   Sales figures though are an indicator of success and to some extent, future success.   I don't know this for certain, but I'd be willing to bet that RTR and GTC are some of their best selling releases in recent years.   I doubt that Dark Ascension was a slouch either.   WotC doesn't need to share hard numbers of units sold.   But rather, if they stated something to the effect, "RTR presales have outsold previous sets by approximately 15%," or, "GTC sales in the first two weeks following release are at +20% over previous releases," and do so in a timely manner, than that information would have impact.   It doesn't have to be shared broadly.   Targeted updates to event organizers in key positions should be adequate to make an effective change.   The trick here is the data must be timely - sales data 3 months after the block releases is not proactive enough to help address the problem.  I know some of this type of information goes out now, but does it do so fast enough to have a positive effect on the planning process for tournaments?   If this all seems like common sense, then let's crank it up a notch.   How about collating into a simple spreadsheet sample data that tracks attendance at all GPs and a statistical sampling of PTQs, Opens, and FNMs?   Would people find that info useful?   Does a bear do his business in the woods?

4.1 Share Information (Part Deux): After an event, tell people what worked.   Don't keep it to yourself or just your event staff.   I know that Judges are supposed to write after-action type of reports, but organizers should be doing the same if they already aren't.   They likely have a different opinion from the Judges and a different focus (more mercantile for one).   Once they're done, post them for others to learn from what worked and what didn't.   I'd like to think this is being done already, but if it isn't there's no good reason not to.   Be critical of your successes and failures.   If you should have had another artist or alterer, write why.   If you needed to be more aware of the draw of side games, list why and what would work better.

5. Innovate: If you're stuck doing registration the current way for reasons that defy logic, find other ways to make the experience more manageable    Scale your expectations for attendance up from any current model.   If you prepare for +30-40% over previous similar events, you position yourself to be a smart planner instead of someone who is simply a fixer of problems.   Open on-site registration earlier.   Offer more incentives to sign-in early.   Be proactive by finding additional Judges who may be at the event - before the event happens and prepare to use them.   Work with teams responsible for set-up and get a few extra tables out.   Even if they aren't needed for the main event, side-events, traders, and people just needing a break will appreciate them.

6. Recognize the Penalties: This really doesn't deserve it's own heading, but there are a couple of points that didn't fit well elsewhere.   When events that have expected numbers or greater start late - they end late.   This puts stress on everyone, creating more situations where mistakes can be made.   Blown calls by Judges are a potential outcome.   Play errors by players most definitely increase the more tired or frustrated a player is with the conditions.   Overly large events require additional turns to figure out.   For small gatherings that double...that's no big deal (probably).   For super-sized events, it creates a more difficult situation.   I don't know whose responsibility this is, but a clear system needs to be established for how to handle pairings and rounds when the event becomes too large.   I have more thoughts on how to improve this, but I'm not being asked for them - I'm just suggesting that there should be established and understood guidelines that treat players and Judges fairly in these instances.

7. It's Good to be King: Event planners, from the lowest to the highest must remember who's the king.   It's little Timmy, Johnny, and big Spike.   Players make or break an event.   They need to be developed continually like a commodity to keep the hobby strong.   Players are the kings of the game, without them WotC and all the supporting industries have to find new ways to make a buck.   Failing to realize this - or perhaps more accurately - a failure to address a known and continuing issue within the system that leads to player frustration and disappointment is going to lead to one resolution.   Fewer people will play.   When hobbyists find that the cost/benefit analysis says that it's not worth the frustration of driving 4 hours to an event, they will stop attending.   It's time to say, "Hail to the King," and baby, it needs to be done now.

I would hope that some of these concepts are already being discussed at levels above my pay grade.   I wouldn't doubt that I just don't see or understand the full problem.   For every problem, however, there is a solution if one is creative and determined enough to find it.

Players know when something isn't right.   While this may be a temporary surge - a blip in a 20 year career of MTG - it is something that is becoming a noticeable pattern.   Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern.   It's time to adapt to the current state of Tournament MTG and find new efficiencies that will benefit all for the next 20 years.

I'm not throwing done the gauntlet, but I am asking for an examination of the current state of play.  I challenge WotC.   I challenge event organizers.   I challenge fans and bloggers.   Not every idea I've come up with is possible and I'm sure I missed other ways to effect positive change.   So let's start it.   Let's create a broad discussion that looks at the future of Magic Tournaments.   It's time to figure out what to do for tomorrow.   Let's set aside differences in purpose and our inherently competitive natures and embrace finding solutions to a problem we should all have - being victims of our own success.


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If anyone needs specific clarifications about one of my thoughts on this topic, feel free to leave a note in the comments.   I'd appreciate that this be shared as broadly as possible.
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